Hello…Hello…I’ll call you back once Verizon goes iPhone

New Tech Boulder predicts 54% of the existing iPhone users will switch from AT&T to Verizon. What’s the math and is it time to buy Verizon, Apple or short AT&T stock?

• According to comScore 23% of the iPhones sold as of November 2010 were for the US Market.
• The same article reports about 75 million iPhones have been sold to date.

If the New Tech survey is accurate and 54% of the people switch thats 9,315,000 new Verizon customers.

• If these number are correct and using my AT&T  bill as an average $150 a month, This will increase Verizon monthly billings by $2,587,500,000.
• Increasing Verizon’s annual revenue by $31,050,000,000.

Holy sh!t these numbers seem crazy.

I don’t think the current Verizon stock reflects these types of increases, but remember buying and selling stock is an adult responsibility and I’m not an investment advisor.

• AT&T stock price 28.85 / market cap 170 bilion
• Verizon Stock price 35.93 / market cap 101 billion
• Apple Stock price 336.12 / market cap 303 billion

A few other stats you might find interesting:

• 26% have already switched to Android
• 5% have switch to Windows 7
• 4% use a blackberry

Linkedin vs Facebook

Has the business world given up on Linkedin?

Two years ago, I would have exclusvily said Facebook is for friends and Linkedin in is for business, not anymore. I am starting to get more business requests on Facebook than LinkedIn. Trend or anomaly?

transparency

in 1996 I started writing a book, “Information is the user interface”. I never finished it, but the theme is more alive today today than it was 1996.

A new trend that is starting to emerge with  business communication is transparency. Ad agencies are getting into the action, look at the CPB campaign for Domino’s and startups are doing it as well.

Last night at New Tech Boulder a local company, Sparkfun, shared their business strategy and growth from bedroom to a 50 thousand square foot facility and last week Backflip studio’s CEO shared his personal and corporate story with a group of students I teach at BDW.

Thanks for sharing.

Apple releases IOS4 for the iPad months ahead of schedule

Apple elegantly moves the topic of conversation by releasing IOS4.0.1 and then telling everyone it also works on the iPad. I am not sure how anyone ever used the original iPad OS.

What, did you say something about an iPhone problem thats so yesterday?

iPad vs the iPhone 4 – the design question

One of my favorite things about the iPad is its ability to automatically determine orientation, hand it to someone and it figures out the proper screen direction.  The devices design when in your hands is amazing, and very easy to differentiate front from back without looking.

Surprisingly the iPhone 4 does not do this well. The back and front feel almost exactly the same. I noticed this when someone recently was trying to show me there exciting new App and didn’t realize the phone was backwards. I was looking at the phone and they were looking at me.  Apple has a beautiful device on their hands, but it feels heavy, has major antenna issues and now orientation problems. Waiting was the right decision. :)

Note to Apple: please slightly round the glass on the back of the phone and add a coating to the antenna before releasing the white version. While I am asking, please enable Verizon as well, thanks.

Robert

Googlsoft vs. Apple

Google is expanding on Microsoft’s play book in multiple ways.

First lets review the ways they are copying it:

1. They are watching Apple
2. They are building and promoting developer tools
3. They are creating a distributed ecosystem
4. They are providing a method for developers to make money and expand their ecosystem
   1. Application sales
   2. Advertising
   3. Consulting
5. They are creating platforms and services people can incorporate into their applications
6. They are hosting large developer events

Second lets review a few of the Microsoft employees that ended up at senior roles in Google:

1. Vic Gundotra - President, Engineering
   1. Previously, Vic spent 15 years at Microsoft, where he worked on a variety of products and operating systems, including Windows 3.0, NT, Windows XP, and Vista.
2. Andy Rubin - Vice President, Engineering
   1. he was instrumental in building and shipping WebTV, the first interactive television-based Internet service, which was acquired by Microsoft in 1995.
3. Neal Mohan - Vice President, Product Management
   1. He has also served in strategy and consulting roles at Microsoft

Last let’s review how they are expanding on the Microsoft’s play book:

1. They have elected to build on open technologies instead of closed proprietary environments
2. They are innovating  the ideas/platforms they are stealing from Apple very fast
3. They are continuing to innovate on the platform as well as the UI

The big question everyone is asking – can Google become the next Microsoft and dominate the tech world for a decade or two. I had a fortune cookie with with dinner the other night that said it best “plagiarism is the most sincere form of flattery”.

Google is not only taking Microsoft’s play book but they are adding a few new chapters.

New York is Announcing New VC Funds – Boulder?

Boulder has a thriving startup scene, some would say as vibrant as anyplace in the US. Using New Tech Boulder as a point of reference let’s review:

1. Boulder has had as many startups present as New York, Silicon Valley and San Francisco over the past 3 years.
2. New Tech Boulder’s rate of growth is on par with these cities and actually leads SF.
3. We have standout Web companies:
   • OneRiot, Lijit, many others
4. We have an incubator/mentor program
   • TechStars
5. We have exits

Seems like the community is doing its part, so where are the VC’s? New York and the Valley seem to be announcing new funds focused on New Tech every month, but Boulder has not made much noise since David Cohen announced his fund last year.

Why?

IPhone vs. AT&T

Is ATT trying to buy Apple?

I figured it out last night while sleeping. The senior management of AT&T really miss being at the technological center of the universe since they lost Lucent in 1996.  When Steve Jobs showed them the IPhone, their long lost dreams of getting back into hardware all became crystal clear, so they hatched a plan.

• They didn’t care if their stock price went from 39 in June of 2007 to 26 in January 2010.
• They didn’t care if they created one of the biggest PR disasters of the last decade.

The plan was to lock Apple into a multiyear exclusive contract and then destabilize them by not upgrading their data network to support the new phone. Than blame the whole thing on the Apple hardware allowing them to purchase the company on the cheap.

I think AT&T’s master plan is working, :).